Bidding Error

I'm depressed.

The bridge club is closed today and tomorrow for something called "Christmas." Mother has told me I can't leave the house on Friday.

Only two days of bridge this week.

Maybe while the family dreams of sugar plums dancing, I'll hop on Bridge Base and play extremely aggressive bridge with my new friends in one of the Koreas - whichever the good one is.

My sins have been pretty uninspiring the last few days. Not paying attention to spots, not cashing Aces to avoid overtricks, under leading kings at the wrong time, weird defense on weird lines of play...

Nothing has really jumped out at me, so it's time to pick on my partner, who did something we all do and it's worth looking at.

How much are those extra 10 points worth in no trump?


It's a 4 table game. Fix city. You never know what's gonna happen at the other tables and there isn't as much field protection as a bigger game. I usually look for moral victories on these days - did I do the right thing? Did I "beat the sheet?" Would anyone yell at me if I told them what I bid?

But then sometimes you just wanna win. Especially when you only get to play once or twice this week.

We just defended the pants off 3C for down 2 vulnerable but it'll only be a half because someone went for 800 at the other table and at the other table someone found a 12% game with 16 points, making 5 on 2 revokes -- so maybe we need to wiggle our way into a top board somehow.

I think we've all thought this at one time or another. Not all of us act on it, but we at least think it.

Will this hand make the same tricks in no trump? Will those extra 10 points put us over the edge?

Red vs white, 1st seat - this is a pretty straightforward sequence so I'm not gonna separate the hands.

An uncontested auction - 1S-2H-3C-3NT - swish. I was hoping partner would put me in spades but it wasn't meant to be. 

Partner can safely assume I have at least one heart, and with all suits stopped, maybe the running heart suit is worth the same in no trump.

East leads the 6 of clubs. Partner has to duck because he can't afford to lose control of the club suit. West wins with the Jack and returns a club to East's Ace.

East switches to a diamond and partner takes the Ace, 3 spades and 7 hearts for +660. 

All four:

East's best lead against 3NT is a diamond which limits Declarer to the same 11 tricks - 3 spades, a diamond and 7 hearts.

The club lead is the only thing that allows declarer to take 12 tricks and could have been a top. He can guess that East has under-led the Ace and take a club trick as well - but if the club are split differently he could be lucky to make 3.

This is a situation where you always* have to duck the king. Maybe he puts the king in anyways because it's his only chance at a top.

I'm not advocating this at all, but I've gone down on hands I've tried to steal those 10 extra points in NT when I should be in my 5-4 fit because I can either accept making 3 as a bottom, or try for 4 or 5 and possibly go down.

Now let's say East is leading against 3NT. He's probably not under leading the Ace of clubs. He may lead it and make declarer's life a lot easier.

On any other lead, declarer will draw 3 rounds of trump. The only way he gains a trick in diamonds is if the opponents discard wrong (unlikely) or if one hand has KQ tight of diamonds (there is no other guess on the diamond suit although if one hand has a stiff diamond honor and the other is known* to have the other onside, then maybe it's worth it, but not on this hand).

Rare, but it's worth a shot, so he should play the Ace of diamonds just in case (if a diamonds wasn't led). If it costs nothing to try for the rare percentage play that will gain a trick, you might as well try it.

When the K or Q doesn't fall, declarer will run 3 spades pitching 2 diamonds (instead of the clubs) from his hand.

Now the only thing left is the Ace of clubs. Odds looks to be 50% that it's onside so declarer can return to hand with a spade ruff, and play low towards the king and pray (or not pray, if you don't believe in the bridge gods.)

Declarer loses one club trick for +680.

As you can see, the club play does not endanger the contract and it leaves a very simple 50% guess.

Declarer had the same guess in NT on a friendly lead (anything besides a diamond), but it's much scarier.

Some hands it's worth a shot (totally flat hands, solid stoppers in all 4 suits), but 95% of the time you are better off just playing in your 8 card fit so you don't have to find miracle layouts and can just ruff your losers instead of trying to find 3 winners with jxx opposite Kx.